Robin Rowland's blog that looks at the future of journalism, the long term future.
On Sunday, July 11, 2010, the future of television news will be decided in South Africa.
As billions watch the Netherlands and Spain play for the FIFA World Cup, a few tens of thousands will be watching that all important match in 3D actually "stereoscopic 3D" (the official term, you'll hear a lot from now on, as well as "stereoscopy").
Three-D is coming faster than anyone expected. The experts, those who are already shooting 3D, say technical requirements of 3D will demand a highly professional approach that, done properly and skillfully, will return the photographic profession to the standards of the film era.
In May, I attended the HotDocs conference in Toronto.
There were two sessions on emerging 3D, one focused on production, the second on technical issues.
I walked into the first session, "Crafting 3D," expecting to hear about megabuck high tech equipment and a future years away, only to find out that the future is now.
It began with the release of James Cameron's Avatar in London on Dec. 10, 2009. The next phase of evolution began on June 11, 2010 when the first games of the FIFA World Cup opened in South Africa. Twenty-five of the games were to be broadcast in "stereoscopic 3D" using Sony cameras, the $100,000 HDC-1500 and the new $30,000 P1, plus the backend software required to put it all together. The 3D games will be broadcast by EPSN's, Sky's new 3D networks and Al Jazeera. (There's a summary in this report from Broadcasting and Cable )
The final game will also be broadcast in Canada in 3D by the CBC which has the Canadian rights for the World Cup. Unfortunately the CBC (once long ago a leader in technology) was, under its current management, late to announce they would broadcast the 3D game -and my usually reliable sources in the Toronto Broadcast Centre that it was pressure from the Rogers cable company which is also one of the sponsors of the broadcasts that forced CBC Sports into the 21st century,
The buzz was out there for 3D coverage long before the first whistle of the World Cup. Three-D sets were already in sports bars and sports pubs (the Masters was broadcast in 3D) and according to the members of the second, tech panel, "Stereoscopic 3D from script to screen" what fans were seeing in UK sports pubs in May was already driving consumer demand for the sets far beyond anything Avatar could have done. It was that panel that predicted that the biggest electronic item this Christmas will be a dual capacity 3D/2D HDTV monitor. The standard HDTV set is already obsolete.
This week, newspapers around the world are full of ads for 3D sets. (But one has to wonder if the bean counting corporate publishers are paying any attention beyond the revenue from those ads.)
The networks around the world are keeping a close eye on the World Cup and there are already demands for 3D content as the world telecoms put together 3D offerings on satellite and cable. (This is also going to be a huge headache for network bean counters who, just a couple of years ago, spent hundreds of millions implementing HDTV, only to find that investment has be made all over again with 3D).
There are already shoulder mounted 3D cameras, about the size of the first heavy video cameras or a large, professional 16mm film rig.
At "Script to Screen" I asked the panel when there would be news crews using 3D cameras. The consensus answer was "'within two years." Discovery already plans a 3D channel for nature and science programming, which was also the first first attractive market for HDTV.
The consensus of the panel was that like HDTV, the first efforts in 3D by news organizations will be high-end, prestige documentaries, then the current affairs programs and finally the evening newscasts. The panel said that there were rumours in the 3D community that 3D planning by CNN was already well underway.
Panasonic is
expected to launch a smaller, lighter 3D camera costing $21,000 this
autumn, a camera that reminds one of the movie robot Wall-E.
At the recent Profusion trade show in Toronto, both Sony and Panasonic had 3D displays. The Sony display was a mind blower, a large 3D HDTV with a video of fish in an aquarium, quality that came close to Avatar. Panasonic had a prototype camera that did not impress the tech savvy crowd, whether it was the technology or the sales tech staff that set it up. The glasses didn't work well and there were ghost images on the screen. (But it is likely those bugs will be worked out by the official launch)
The electronics business wants a consumer-friendly 3D market ( amateurs and family shooters are now an estimated at 90 per cent of the photo and video market) and wants those photographers to shoot 3D, and already have announced low end 3D equipment. But the experts on that panel said that shooting 3D so that it creates an environment that draws in the viewer--and doesn't make them sick or trigger a headache--will require high skill levels to shoot.
In others words it could be a return to the film era. There were millions of amateur photographers during the film era, but in 95% of cases, the professional was paid for the professional product.
Professional photographers and
videographers have been facing the future with
fear and loathing for the past few years as the value of their work
has declined in competition with the prosumer and amateurs whose work
is easily available for a just a dollar or more often for free.
By Christmas, 2010, that too will begin to change. The best present for those who want to create visually and earn a decent living, is that a blue alien and the beautiful game will revive and reinvigorate professional photography.
The professional will have to master parallax, depth cues, stereoscopic depth perception and depth resolution, interocular distance, depth placement, convergence, orthostereoscopy and the audience's 3D comfort zone. (All beyond the scope of this blog).
So whether you are cheering for the Netherlands or Spain, give a couple of cheers for the 3D crews as well. Because if it works, it's a whole new ball game.
Links
Panasonic introduces 3D videocamera.
